Blanche L. Lincoln, D-Ark.
History says Reid, Specter and Lincoln are goners
Only two senators since 1984 have overcome the deficits that Harry Reid, Arlen Specter and Blanche Lincoln now face
Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid of Nev. speaks to the media on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, Feb. 11, 20010, following a meeting with the Senate Democratic Caucus. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)(Credit: AP) Asked about Harry Reid’s reelection prospects on MSNBC recently, a sympathetic Las Vegas newspaper columnist quipped that “we call him Landslide Harry, which basically is a term that recognizes that he never really wins races by very much. It’s not unusual that he’s being challenged and that the polls are where they are here.”
Actually, it is.
It’s true that Reid, the Senate majority leader, has had some close calls in the past — like when he edged out then-Rep. John Ensign by a scant 428 votes in 1998. But there was a big difference between that race and this one: Reid wasn’t running from behind.
At the end of February ’98, an independent poll actually put Reid 9 points ahead of Ensign, 45 to 36 percent. By contrast, the three most recent independent polls this year have shown Reid trailing the current GOP front-runner, Sue Lowden, by 6, 9 and 10 points. (Although there’s also a recent poll that showed the gap narrowing when a third party candidate from the tea party movement was included.)
When it comes to polling, Reid is actually in unique — and ominous — territory for an incumbent senator. A Salon review found that since 1984, 10 Senate incumbents have found themselves consistently trailing by significant margins at this stage of the campaign — and eight of them were defeated in November.
The only two survivors were Jesse Helms, who beat out then-North Carolina Gov. James Hunt in 1984, and New York’s Alfonse D’Amato, who battled back to defeat Robert Abrams in 1992. Some of the others managed to chip away at deep gaps, but all of them lost in the end. (By this point in 1984, Helms was running roughly even with Hunt, but polling in 1983 had placed him more than 20 points behind.)
This doesn’t portend well for Reid, or for the two other Democratic incumbents who are now facing similar (or worse) poll numbers: Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter (who trailed Republican Pat Toomey by 10 points in a poll released this week) and Arkansas’ Blanche Lincoln (who is running about 20 points behind Rep. John Boozman).
Nor does the Helms example offer much of a survival model for them: The polarizing North Carolinian benefited from the coattails of Ronald Reagan, who carried his state with more than 60 percent on Election Day ’84. Reid, Specter and Lincoln will get no such help from the top-of-the-ticket this year.
The D’Amato case is slightly different. His campaign was saved by the combination of an ugly Democratic primary between Robert Abrams and Geraldine Ferraro and by Abrams’ self-destruction in the fall campaign (he called D’Amato a fascist at one point). Reid, Specter and Lincoln will need a break like that to survive this year. Because without one, history suggests there’s not much they can do.
Rozina Ali contributed to this story.
Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki More Steve Kornacki.
Blanche Lincoln joins conservative lobby in fight against EPA
After the party and the White House failed to save her Senate seat, the ostensible Democrat aids polluters
In this photo taken May 25, 2010, Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., is interviewed at her campaign headquarters in Little Rock, Ark. In the home state of former President Bill Clinton, and elsewhere, party leaders and structures are being bypassed _ undermined, in some cases _ by free-agent candidates who declare their independence from the political establishment while aligning themselves with special interests. "This is an election like no other," says Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, a union-backed candidate who has forced Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln into a June 8 runoff. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston)(Credit: AP) Last year, then-Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-Walmart) was facing a tough primary fight from a more liberal Democrat. With labor and progressive groups aligned against her, the White House and the Democratic Party jumped in to defend Lincoln. Bill Clinton himself campaigned for Lincoln, and the effort paid off: She lost to a Republican in the general election. And then she joined a right-wing interest group. And now she’s fighting the EPA’s plan to regulate greenhouse gases.
The National Federation of Independent Business is generally treated in the press as the official practically apolitical voice of American small business (and the press treats the word of “small business” with almost as much reverence as that of military generals) but it is, in fact, a conservative lobbying organization that has spent decades fighting for anti-labor, anti-environmental and anti-consumer policies, all in the name of protecting our cherished “independent businesses.”
Continue Reading Close
Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
GOP on Kagan: Will she fight for civil rights of rich, powerful?
Republicans worry that Justice Kagan might not always rule on the side of corporations and the military
Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan, foreground. listens to questions from Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, on video screen, on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, June 29, 2010, during the committee's confirmation hearing for Kagan. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)(Credit: Susan Walsh) Yesterday, the Republican members of the Senate Judicial Committee opened the Elena Kagan confirmation hearings by, perhaps unwisely, putting Thurgood Marshall on trial. Today, they’re laying off Marshall, but they’re making it clear that they believe the court’s job is to always defend the rights of the powerful.
Republicans brought Marshall up 35 times yesterday, with unrepentant racist scumbag Jeff Sessions and Arizona’s Jon Kyl leading the charge against that terrible activist liberal judge who hated the Constitution. (Later, asked to name any single Marshall decision or opinion they disagreed with, Sessions and Orrin Hatch and Tom Coburn could not, really. Because that would’ve given away the game.)
Continue Reading Close
Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
National progressives are wrong about Blanche Lincoln
Lincoln's surprise win in last week's runoff looked a lot different in Arkansas than outside of it
Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) on June 12. Whether Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln can survive a challenge from GOP Rep. John Boozman in November, her primary win over Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has surely set off a slanging match among Democrats. The pecking party was touched off by a morning-after comment by an anonymous White House official.
“Organized labor just flushed $10 million of their members’ money down the toilet on a pointless exercise,” the official told Politico. “If even half that total had been well-targeted and applied in key House races across this country, that could have made a real difference in November.”
Continue Reading CloseArkansas Times columnist Gene Lyons is a National Magazine Award winner and co-author of "The Hunting of the President" (St. Martin's Press, 2000). You can e-mail Lyons at eugenelyons2@yahoo.com. More Gene Lyons.
The unsinkable Blanche Lincoln
Despite endless whining from the lobbyists, the Arkansas senator's derivatives reform proposal keeps moving along
FILE - In this May 19, 2010 file photo, Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark. walks on Capitol Hill in Washington. Lawmakers will tackle sticking points and try to blend House and Senate bills into a single rewrite of banking regulations. A final measure, which President Barack Obama wants by July 4, is intended to prevent another financial crisis like the 2008 meltdown, which triggered a deep recession. (AP Photo/Harry Hamburg)(Credit: AP) So what’s happening with Blanche Lincoln’s infamous derivatives regulatory proposal, popularly referred to among the cognoscenti as “Section 716,” adored by progressives (who never liked Lincoln), despised by Wall Street (who thought they could trust Lincoln to serve their interests), and supposedly opposed by the Treasury?
Continue Reading Close
Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21. More Andrew Leonard.
Lincoln scorns Clinton’s pleas to save planet
Rescued by Bill Clinton's support, the Arkansas Democrat votes with Big Oil against carbon regulation -- and him
Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark. is seen outside her office in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, June 9, 2010. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)(Credit: AP) Other than Al Gore – or perhaps Barack Obama – there are few major American politicians who speak out more passionately about global warming and the need to change our civilization’s energy economy than Bill Clinton. His concern dates back before the unanimous rejection of the first Kyoto treaty by the U.S. Senate – which he had endorsed as president — and he has devoted the resources of the Clinton Foundation to reducing carbon emissions and saving forests around the world.
Continue Reading CloseJoe Conason blogs in Salon several times a week and writes a weekly column for the New York Observer. His latest book is "It Can Happen Here: Authoritarian Peril in the Age of Bush." More Joe Conason.
Page 1 of 7 in Blanche L. Lincoln, D-Ark.